Vegetables market and its infrastructure, imitation model, scenario forecast, production and consumption of vegetable production in Russia.
The article is devoted to studying the alternatives of development of the Russian vegetables market from the point of view of change of the level and structure of production and consumption of vegetables. The main objectives of the research are to collect and analyze data of the Russian market of vegetable production, modeling and scenario forecasting vegetables market, a substantiation of directions of development of the market under study. The methodological basis of the research is developing the combined economic & mathematical imitation model that is based on creation of the differential equations system. As any qualitative and quantitative changes of market factors lead to shifts in consumer behavior and the structure of consumed products, the scenario variants of development of the situation at the Russian vegetables market was analyzed depending on foreign trade limitations, level of development of infrastructure, and pricing factors of the market. As a result of the research, the volume of consumption of various types of vegetables is predicted for the variants of the forecasts, as well as consequences of the change of the situation for the Russian vegetable sphere on the whole.
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Appendix 1: Trends of factor variables
production of cucumbers tons
x1 = 54.061t + 1,099
production of tomatoes, tons
x2 = 89.687t + 1,990.2
production of beet, tons
x3 = 27.693t + 785.4
production of carrot, tons
x4 = 43.206t + 1,258.1
production of cabbage, tons
x5 = 85.383t + 2,649.2
production of bulb onion, tons
x6 = 97.397t + 1,134
production of garlic, tons
x7 = 0.9848t + 232.01
production of other vegetables, tons
x8 =64.765t + 916.97
import of cucumbers, tons
x11 = 13,456t + 79,264
import of tomatoes, tons
x12 = 40.960t + 416.074
import of beet, tons
x13 = 1.613.6t + 48,203
import of carrot, tons
x14 = 10,288t + 131,520
import of cabbage, tons
x15 = 3,056.4t + 175,302
import of bulb onion, tons
x16 = -30,730t + 597,273
import of garlic, tons
x17 = 1,542.1t + 37,131
import of other vegetables, tons
x18 = 25,641t + 165,634
export of cucumbers, tons
x19 = 319.94t – 1,174.7
export of tomatoes, tons
x20 = 19.159t – 7.8678
export of beet, tons
x21 = 142.31t – 22.83
export of carrot, tons
x22 = 372.12t – 1,274.5
export of cabbage, tons
x23 = -131.53t + 1,508.8
export of bulb onion, tons
x24 = 689.47t + 4,863.6
export of garlic, tons
x25 = 21.269t – 33.317
export of other vegetables, tons
x26 = 83,770t – 104.152
import price of cucumbers, RUB/kg
x27 = 4.4987t + 5.3254
import price of tomatoes, RUB/kg
x28 = 3.7192t + 10.991
import price of beet, RUB/kg
x29 = 3.1472t + 0.9257
import price of carrot, RUB/kg
x30 = 1.5634t + 4.947
import price of cabbage, RUB/kg
x31 = 1.4777t + 4.2184
import price of bulb onion
x32 = 1.7731t + 2.1287
import price of garlic, RUB/kg
x33 = 5.9303t – 4.0923
import price of other vegetables, RUB/kg
x34 = 3.3392 t + 15.203
export price of cucumbers, RUB/kg
x35 = 2.4107t + 22.44
export price of tomatoes, RUB/kg
x36= 1.0761t + 39.785
export price of beet, RUB/kg
x37 = 2.0275t – 1.0969
export price of carrot, RUB/kg
x38 = 0.6588t + 20.977
export price of cabbage, RUB/kg
x39 = 1.4139t + 1.0507
export price of bulb onion, RUB/kg
x40 = 1.5213t – 0.6736
export price of garlic, RUB/kg
x41 = 3.9529t + 4.6282
export price of other vegetables, RUB/kg
x42 = 0.8361 t + 7.5652
domestic price of cucumbers, RUB/kg
x43 = 5.3267t + 44.999
domestic price of tomatoes, RUB/kg
x44 = 5.3913t + 57.028
domestic price of beet, RUB/kg
x45 = 1.4566t + 13.279
domestic price of carrot, RUB/kg
x46= 2.0437t + 14.404
domestic price of cabbage, RUB/kg
x47 = 1.3028t + 11.92
domestic price of bulb onion, RUB/kg
x48 = 1.3762t + 13.887
domestic price of garlic, RUB/kg
x49 = 10.195t + 34.401
domestic price of other vegetables, RUB/kg
x50=4.0643t + 35.334
number of population, million people
x51 = 0.1464t + 142.5
income per capita, RUB
x52 = 3,001.3t – 4,062.8
expenditures per capita, RUB
x53 = 1,124.7t + 3,242.4
capacities of vegetables storage, thousand tons
x54 = 18.885t + 2,552.6
area of greenhouses, hectares
x55 = 81.064t + 6,652.5