Keyword

Brexit, Clothing, Footwear, Negotiation, Textile, Uncertainty.

Abstract

On 23 June 2016 the UK voted to leave the EU, (Brexit).  A four year and six-month period of uncertainty ensued before Article 50 was activated.  Eventually the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) came into force on 1 May 2021. The UK retail sector, in particular the textile/clothing and footwear, relies on high levels of international importation to the UK.  As the negotiations between the UK and the EU were undertaken, key elements featured in the development of the new Brexit policy.  This paper examines the impact on the textile/clothing and footwear UK importation trade in relation to three of these key elements:-

· June 23, 2016, UK voted to leave the EU.

· 29 March 2017 Article 50 was triggered.

· October 2019 Article 50 extended.

The data was modelled using the main five UK import partners in relation to textile/clothing and footwear from the WITS (World Integrated Trade Solution) database and the UK Office of National Statistics annual and monthly data sets, in relation to the three key elements of policy. The study provided an initial insight into the impact of policy decision making during the Brexit process. The findings show that Key elements of Brexit policy making had a negative impact on importation trade in relation to Textile/Clothing and Footwear. Further research is recommended to establish the long-term effects of Brexit policy on the UK retail economy as a whole, over the next five years.  This to be extended to the export of textile/clothing and footwear from the UK to EU and Non-EU trading partners.


Full Text : PDF

References
  • Belke, Ansgar; Gros, Daniel (2017): The economic impact of Brexit: Evidence from modelling free trade agreements, Ruhr Economic Papers, No. 700, ISBN 978-3-86788-814-1, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Essen.
  • Bennett, A. and Vines, D., 2022. The EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement: lessons learnt. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 38(1), pp.68-81.
  • Bloom, N., Bunn, P., Chen, S., Mizen, P., Smietanka, P. and Thwaites, G., 2019. The impact of Brexit on UK firms (No. w26218). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Chang, W., (2018), Brexit and its economic consequences, The World Economy, Volume 41, Issue 9, page 2349-2373, September 2018.
  • Dhingra S., and Sampson T., (2022), Expecting Brexit, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1824 January 2022
  • English, R.A., 2018. UK preferential international trade after 23 June 2016. The Business & Management Review, 9(3), pp.451-458.
  • European Commission, (2020), EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement A new relationship, with big changes, December 2020.
  • Fernandes A., P., and Winters L., A., (2021), Exporters and shocks: The impact of the Brexit vote shock on bilateral exports to the UK, Journal of International Economics, 131 (2021).
  • Graziano, A.G., Handley, K. and Limao, N., 2021. Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration. ˜ The Economic Journal, 131(635), pp.1150-1185.
  • Hantzsche A., Kara, A., Young G., (2019), The economic effects of the UK government’s proposed Brexit deal, The World Economy, Volume 42, Issue 1, January 2019, Pages 5-20
  • Holmes, P., Rollo J., and Winters, L., A., (2016), Negotiating the UK’s Post-Brexit Trade Arrangements, National Institute Economic Review No. 238 November 2016.
  • Lydgate E., Rollo J., Wilkinson R., (2016) The UK Trade Landscape After Brexit, UK Trade Policy Observatory, October 2016
  • Lydgate E., and Winters L. A., (2019), Deep and Not Comprehensive? What the WTO Rules Permit for a UK–EU FTA, World Trade Review (2019), 18: 3, 451–479
  • Martin J., Martinez, A., and Mejean I., (2019), The cost of Brexit uncertainty: missing partners for French exporters. 2019. ffhalshs-02515757f
  • Nicolaides, Phedon A.; Roy, Thibault (2017): Brexit and Trade: Between Facts and Irrelevance, Inter-economics, ISSN1613-964X, Springer, Heidelberg, Vol.52, Iss.2, pp100-106
  • Office for National Statistics, (2021), Trade in goods: Country by commodity imports, non- seasonally adjusted 1997 to 2017 Monthly import country-by-commodity data on the UK's trade in goods, including trade by all countries and selected commodities, non-seasonally adjusted, published at 7:00am 11 November 2021
  • Office for National Statistics, (2022), UK trade in goods, annual country imports by commodity, current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, 2018 to 2022, UK trade statistics, 2022.
  • Ries, C.P., Hafner, M., Smith, T.D., Burwell, F.G., Egel, D., Han, E., Stepanek, M. and Shatz, H.J., 2017. After Brexit: Alternate forms of Brexit and their implications for the United Kingdom, the European Union and the United States. RAND Corporation Santa Monica United States. January 2017.
  • Safonovs, R., and Upadhyay, A., Is your Brexit supply chain resilient enough? The British footwear manufacturers’ Perspective, STRATEGIC DIRECTION VOL. 33 NO. 11 2017, pp. 34-36, © Emerald Publishing Limited, ISSN 0258-0543
  • Swati S. D., Huang H., Ottaviano G., Pessoa J. P., Sampson T., and Reenen J. V., (2017), The costs and benefits of leaving the EU: trade effects, Trade after Brexit, Economic Policy,October 2017
  • Tetlow, G., and Stojanovic A., (2018), Understanding the economic impact of Brexit, Institute for Government, October 2018,
  • Worldbank (2019), United Kingdom Footwear Imports by country in US$ Thousand 2019 World Integrated Trade Solution, wits.worldbank.org, Product 64-67 Footwear.
  • Worldbank (2019), United Kingdom Footwear Imports by country in US$ Thousand 2019 World Integrated Trade Solution, wits.worldbank.org, Product 64-67 Textile/clothing